+EV betting card
Every model pick ranked by expected value at the best available price. EV is per the model — not a guarantee. Not betting advice.
3 +EV plays — 2026-09-18 · 2 worth playing
EV = model edge + line-shop gain| Game | Market | Pick | Best price | Proj% | Mkt% | Model | Shop | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
● Cougars@TTRaiders · 7:00 PM CT | Spread | Raiders -7.5 | +104Kalshi | 54% | 49% | +9.8% | +0.0% | +9.8% |
| ●Cougars@TTRaiders · 7:00 PM CT | ML | TTRaiders | -285Kalshi | 78% | 74% | +5.8% | 0.0% | +5.8% |
MHHurricanes@ Deacons · 6:30 PM CT | Total | under 56.5 | -104Kalshi | 52% | 51% | +1.9% | +0.0% | +1.9% |
EV splits into Model (edge betting at fair — the model genuinely liking the side) and Shop (extra from the best price beating fair). A green ● marks a quality play: model and price agree and the edge clears 2%. ⚠ flags an unusually large EV (>15%) that is almost always a stale line — verify it before trusting it. Proj% is regressed toward the sharp market (30% model on ML, 20% on totals); CLV is still the real long-run judge.