Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Texas Tech
Market73.4%
Model78.3%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadRaiders -7.5 +104Kalshi+9.8% EV
MoneylineRaiders -285Kalshi
TotalOver 52.5 -104Kalshi-1.2% EV