Performance
+EV picks (graded)
1162
across all sports
Record
597-565
51%
P/L
-30.90u
flat 1u stakes
ROI
-2.7%
outcome-based
Avg CLV
0.0%
beat the close
Work in progress: NFL, NBA and NHL are in the red. Small samples swing hard, but closing-line value near zero says those models aren’t beating the market yet, so we're retuning them. Every pick stays in the record as graded.
- NFL (Oct 28): Totals picks paused: our scoring projection showed no edge over the posted totals. Moneyline and spread picks continue — they’ve held up.
- NBA (Oct 28): The model now leans on the market until teams have ~20 games of this season (it was still rating last year’s rosters), and skips games where it disagrees with the market most.
- NHL (Oct 28): Puck-line picks paused: they didn’t beat the closing line in our first ~200 games. Totals now price off the juice, not just the line, and lean harder on the market.
| Sport | +EV picks | Record | Win% | Avg odds | P/L (u) | ROI | CLV | ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MLB | 163 | 91-72 | 56% | +101 | +19.50u | +12.0% | 0.3% | 382-267 | 7-6 | 80-78 |
 NFL | 189 | 99-90 | 52% | -114 | -8.71u | -4.6% | -0.2% | 78-40 | 56-60 | 46-60 |
 NCAAF | 529 | 282-247 | 53% | -109 | +4.56u | +0.9% | 0.1% | 205-98 | 157-141 | 184-187 |
 NBA | 114 | 45-69 | 39% | -108 | -30.40u | -26.7% | 0.1% | 41-19 | 26-34 | 40-44 |
 NHL | 167 | 80-87 | 48% | -108 | -15.84u | -9.5% | -0.2% | 122-90 | 121-74 | 105-108 |
Thin edges (0–2% EV) are listed on the board without a ● and aren't in the record above. Tracked anyway: 258-201, +4.50u, avg CLV +0.1% over 459 plays.
Plays above 15% EV are hidden from the picks as likely bad lines, and aren't in the record above. Tracked anyway: 52-65, -10.81u, avg CLV +0.7% over 117 plays.