Falcons
Elo 1492 · #17 · 3-4
@
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT
Final 0–16
Buccaneers
Elo 1479 · #18 · 2-5
Michael Penix Jr. vs Baker Mayfield
Best available across all books & exchanges at pull time, labeled by source.
Matchup factors
Weather
75°F · Cloudy
Wind 11 mph
Power edge
Buccaneers by 1.4 pts
projected margin · Elo + home field (+1.9 pts)
Win% (home) — Model 61% · Market 55%
FalconsElo
1492
Rank
#17
Record
3-4
Point diff -2
BuccaneersElo
1479
Rank
#18
Record
2-5
Point diff +11
Win probability — Buccaneers
Market54.8%
Model60.7%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadBuccaneers -2.5 +104Kalshi+7.4% EV
MoneylineBuccaneers -120NoVig
Starting quarterbacks
Michael Penix Jr.
Falcons · QBLimited data — no rating yet for this starter.
Baker Mayfield
Buccaneers · QBQB Elo
+62
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
42.1
Games
49
passing · 4g
679 yds · 3-2 TD-INT · 6.3 Y/A · 64% comp
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.
Injuries
Falcons injuriesSamson Ebukam · DE · Questionable
Hamstring
Olamide Zaccheaus · WR · Questionable
Shoulder
Charles Snowden · DE · Questionable
Back
Divine Deablo · LB · Questionable
Forearm
Brian Robinson · RB · Out
Hamstring
Billy Bowman Jr. · CB · Questionable
Hamstring
Beaux Collins · WR · Questionable
Hip
Cameron Williams · T · Questionable
Ankle
Avieon Terrell · CB · Questionable
Illness
Buccaneers injuriesKenny Gainwell · RB · Questionable
Hip
Luke Goedeke · T · Questionable
Calf
Emeka Egbuka · WR · Out
Foot