About
Picks De Chill is an honest sports-analytics project. It surfaces model-driven +EV plays across MLB, NFL, college football, the NHL and the NBA, and — the part that matters most — judges every pick by whether it beat the closing line. No hype, no touting. Just the numbers, for what they are.
What it is
Statistical models — FiveThirtyEight / nfelo-style Elo power ratings blended toward the sharp market — that flag small, real edges, and price them at the best available number across the exchanges. Every pick is tracked for CLV (closing line value), the honest long-run scorecard, so the models are always accountable.
What it isn't
- Not a tout service. Nothing is sold, and no one is promised winners.
- Not betting advice. Everything is informational — model output, as is.
- Not a guarantee. Most days the market is efficient and there's little or no edge — and the board says so.
How the models work
Power ratings. Each team carries an Elo rating updated after every game — margin of victory, home field, and a between-season regression toward the mean.
Predictions. Elo becomes a projected margin, win probability, and total, then gets blended toward the de-vigged market (the market is sharp and usually right, so the model only nudges it). Each side is priced from there.
+EV. Expected value splits into Model edge (the model vs the fair price) and Shop gain (the best available price vs fair). A green ● marks a quality play — the edge clears ~2% and the model and price agree. Anything above 15% EV is almost always a stale or bad line, so it's not listed as a pick; those plays are still graded, and their record is shown on Performance.
The judge. Win/loss records and ROI are noisy over small samples. Beating the closing line — CLV — is what actually predicts long-run value, so that's the metric the Performance page leads with.
The sports
MLB
NFL
NCAAF
NHL
NBAPlay responsibly
Betting carries real risk. Only ever wager what you can comfortably afford to lose, and keep it fun — that's the whole point. You must be of legal age in your jurisdiction (21+ in most of the US). If gambling stops being fun or starts to feel like a problem, help is available: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Picks De Chill is a personal research project and is not affiliated with any league, team, or sportsbook. Odds and data come from public sources and third-party APIs and may be delayed or imperfect.