Texas State
Elo 1626 · #52 · 4-4
@
Sat, Oct 31, 9:00 PM CT
Final 45–46
Boise State
Elo 1835 · #7 · 7-1
Best available across all books & exchanges at pull time, labeled by source.
Matchup factors
Weather
53°F · Cloudy
Wind 11 mph
Power edge
Boise State by 10.5 pts
projected margin · Elo + home field (+2.5 pts)
Win% (home) — Model 81% · Market 78%
Texas StateElo
1626
Rank
#52
Record
4-4
Point diff +49
Boise StateElo
1835
Rank
#7
Record
7-1
Point diff +98
Win probability — Boise State
Market78.5%
Model80.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadBobcats +10.5 -102Kalshi-0.3% EV
MoneylineBroncos -376Kalshi
TotalUnder 63.5 +100Kalshi+2.1% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Texas State · QB
Yards
1,933
TD-INT
18-5
Comp%
67%
2026: 8.3 Y/A · 436 rush yds, 6 TD
Boise State · QB
Yards
1,681
TD-INT
15-1
Comp%
67%
2026: 7.6 Y/A · 142 rush yds, 3 TD
Leading passer shown as the projected starter — CFBD has no official depth chart. Current-season stats.