Bears
Elo 1580 · #8 · 5-2
@
Mon, Nov 2, 7:20 PM CT
Seahawks
Elo 1646 · #2 · 4-3
Caleb Williams vs Sam Darnold
Best available across all books & exchanges at pull time, labeled by source.
Matchup factors
Weather
51°F · Cloudy
Wind 4 mph
Power edge
Seahawks by 4.6 pts
projected margin · Elo + home field (+1.9 pts)
Win% (home) — Model 62% · Market 61%
BearsElo
1580
Rank
#8
Record
5-2
Point diff +37
SeahawksElo
1646
Rank
#2
Record
4-3
Point diff +43
Win probability — Seahawks
Market60.9%
Model62.0%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadSeahawks -3 -108ProphetX-0.8% EV
MoneylineSeahawks -163Kalshi
Starting quarterbacks
Caleb Williams
Bears · QBQB Elo
-9
vs avg
Average
Raw value
17.3
Games
17
passing · 4g
1,020 yds · 5-1 TD-INT · 8.2 Y/A · 71% comp
Sam Darnold
Seahawks · QBQB Elo
+16
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
25.9
Games
26
passing · 6g
1,290 yds · 8-8 TD-INT · 7.3 Y/A · 62% comp
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.
Injuries
Bears injuriesD'Marco Jackson · LB · Questionable
Ankle
Kyle Monangai · RB · Out
Thumb / Toe
Malik Muhammad · CB · Questionable
Toe
Seahawks injuriesUchenna Nwosu · LB · Doubtful
Ankle
Drew Lock · QB · Questionable
Elbow
Rashid Shaheed · WR · Out
Knee
Velus Jones Jr. · RB · Out
Hamstring
Charles Cross · T · Out
Ankle
Brandon Pili · DT · Questionable
Back
Patrick O'Connell · LB · Questionable
Toe
Anthony Bradford · G · Questionable
Knee