Patriots
Elo 1582 · #7 · 4-3
@
Sun, Nov 1, 3:25 PM CT
Final 24–19
Dolphins
Elo 1390 · #29 · 1-5
Drake Maye vs Malik Willis
Best available across all books & exchanges at pull time, labeled by source.
Matchup factors
Weather
77°F · Cloudy
Wind 7 mph
Power edge
Patriots by 5.8 pts
projected margin · Elo + home field (+1.9 pts)
Win% (home) — Model 25% · Market 24%
PatriotsElo
1582
Rank
#7
Record
4-3
Point diff +17
DolphinsElo
1390
Rank
#29
Record
1-5
Point diff -59
Win probability — Dolphins
Market24.5%
Model24.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadPatriots -7 -103Caesars+0.2% EV
MoneylinePatriots -305DraftKings
Starting quarterbacks
Drake Maye
Patriots · QBQB Elo
0
vs avg
Average
Raw value
20.4
Games
12
passing · 7g
1,784 yds · 13-8 TD-INT · 8.3 Y/A · 66% comp
Malik Willis
Dolphins · QBQB Elo
-40
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
6.4
Games
8
passing · 6g
1,057 yds · 4-4 TD-INT · 7.0 Y/A · 58% comp
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.
Injuries
Patriots injuriesCarlton Davis III · CB · Questionable
Neck
A.J. Brown · WR · Questionable
Ankle / Knee
Christian Elliss · LB · Questionable
Chest
TreVeyon Henderson · RB · Questionable
Illness
Dolphins injuriesReese Taylor · CB · Questionable
Quadricep
Julius Brents · CB · Questionable
Neck / Concussion
Kadyn Proctor · T · Out
Concussion