Chiefs
Elo 1562 · #13 · 5-1
@
Sun, Nov 1, 3:25 PM CT
Final 24–28
Broncos
Elo 1630 · #4 · 5-2
Patrick Mahomes vs Bo Nix
Best available across all books & exchanges at pull time, labeled by source.
Matchup factors
Weather
61°F · Cloudy
Wind 6 mph
Power edge
Broncos by 4.6 pts
projected margin · Elo + home field (+1.9 pts)
Win% (home) — Model 62% · Market 49%
ChiefsElo
1562
Rank
#13
Record
5-1
Point diff +40
BroncosElo
1630
Rank
#4
Record
5-2
Point diff +3
Win probability — Broncos
Market48.7%
Model62.1%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadBroncos +1.5 -111NoVig⚠ +21.1% EV · likely a bad line, not a pick
MoneylineBroncos +104Kalshi
Starting quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs · QBQB Elo
+55
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
39.5
Games
59
passing · 6g
1,474 yds · 9-4 TD-INT · 7.7 Y/A · 65% comp
Bo Nix
Broncos · QBQB Elo
+46
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
36.4
Games
18
passing · 7g
1,271 yds · 7-3 TD-INT · 5.8 Y/A · 59% comp
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.
Injuries
Chiefs injuriesL'Jarius Sneed · CB · Questionable
Knee
Omarr Norman-Lott · DT · Out
Knee
R Mason Thomas · DE · Questionable
Not injury related - personal matter
Mansoor Delane · CB · Questionable
Shoulder
Broncos injuriesGarett Bolles · T · Questionable
Hip
Zach Allen · DE · Questionable
Hamstring
Brandon Jones · S · Questionable
Hamstring
Talanoa Hufanga · S · Out
Ankle
Jaylen Waddle · WR · Questionable
Chest
RJ Harvey · RB · Out
Knee