Model performance
788 graded· 0 awaiting result· 74 upcoming· CLV on 506/788· last graded Nov 1, 1:02 AM CT· 9 excluded (picked after start)
Winners
205-98
68%
Totals
184-187
50%
Spread
157-141
53%
Avg CLV
-0.1%
beat the close
Shop gain
+1.49%
best vs avg book (ML)
By model
| Model | Moneyline | ML CLV | Totals | Tot CLV | Spread | Spread CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cfb_elo | 205-98 · 67.7% | -0.1% | — | — | 157-141 · 52.7% | -0.1% |
| cfb_totals | — | — | 184-187 · 49.6% | 0.3% | — | — |
+EV picks — flagged plays only
the card's green ● plays: 2–15% EV| Model | +EV picks | Record | Win% | Avg odds | P/L (u) | ROI | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cfb_elo · Moneyline | 95 | 64-31 | 67% | -179 | +2.91u | +3.1% | -0.4% |
| cfb_elo · Spread | 210 | 113-97 | 54% | -100 | +15.52u | +7.4% | -0.0% |
| cfb_totals | 224 | 105-119 | 47% | -100 | -13.87u | -6.2% | 0.4% |
Thin edges (0–2% EV) are listed on the board without a ● and aren't in the record above. Tracked anyway: 74-60, -1.62u, avg CLV +0.2% over 134 plays.
Plays above 15% EV are hidden from the picks as likely bad lines, and aren't in the record above. Tracked anyway: 20-23, -2.03u, avg CLV +1.2% over 43 plays (small sample).
Backtest — cfb_elo
walk-forward vs historical linesseason 2026, weeks 1–3 — outcomes are noisy at this sample; CLV is the signal that matters.
| Market | Picks | Record | Win% | ROI | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 64 | 44-20 | 69% | +1.1% | -0.8% |
| Spread | 62 | 28-34 | 45% | -11.8% | -0.2% |