Model performance
1989 graded· 2 awaiting result· 0 upcoming· CLV on 1155/1989· last graded Oct 28, 10:34 PM CT· 4 void (game cancelled)· 32 excluded (picked after start)· 2 overdue (started 36h+ ago, not graded)
Winners
382-267
59%
Totals
80-78
51%
Run line
7-6
54%
Avg CLV
0.1%
beat the close
Shop gain
+0.49%
best vs avg book (ML)
By model
| Model | Moneyline | ML CLV | Totals | Tot CLV | Run line | Run line CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rules_v1 | 399-278 · 58.9% | 0.0% | 320-354 · 47.5% | — | 78-77 · 50.3% | — |
| model_v2 | 382-267 · 58.9% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
| totals_v2 | — | — | 80-78 · 50.6% | +0.14 | — | — |
| runline_v2 | — | — | — | — | 7-6 · 53.8% | 2.1% |
+EV picks — flagged plays only
the card's green ● plays: 2–15% EV| Model | +EV picks | Record | Win% | Avg odds | P/L (u) | ROI | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| model_v2 | 89 | 53-36 | 60% | +104 | +17.85u | +20.1% | 0.3% |
| totals_v2 | 74 | 38-36 | 51% | -103 | +1.65u | +2.2% | +0.06 |
Thin edges (0–2% EV) are listed on the board without a ● and aren't in the record above. Tracked anyway: 109-81, +9.19u, avg CLV +0.1% over 190 plays.
Plays above 15% EV are hidden from the picks as likely bad lines, and aren't in the record above. Tracked anyway: 3-3, +0.20u, avg CLV +3.4% over 6 plays (small sample).