Model performance
434 graded· 0 awaiting result· 0 upcoming· CLV on 405/434· last graded Nov 1, 10:06 PM CT· 6 excluded (picked after start)
Winners
122-90
58%
Totals
105-108
49%
Puck line
121-74
62%
Avg CLV
-0.1%
beat the close
Shop gain
+1.53%
best vs avg book (ML)
Work in progress: NHL is in the red. Small samples swing hard, but closing-line value near zero says that model isn’t beating the market yet, so we're retuning it. Every pick stays in the record as graded.
- NHL (Oct 28): Puck-line picks paused: they didn’t beat the closing line in our first ~200 games. Totals now price off the juice, not just the line, and lean harder on the market.
By model
| Model | Moneyline | ML CLV | Totals | Tot CLV | Puck line | Puck line CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nhl_elo | 122-90 · 57.5% | -0.1% | — | — | 121-74 · 62.1% | -2.5% |
| nhl_totals | — | — | 105-108 · 49.3% | 0.1% | — | — |
+EV picks — flagged plays only
the card's green ● plays: 2–15% EV| Model | +EV picks | Record | Win% | Avg odds | P/L (u) | ROI | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nhl_elo · Moneyline | 83 | 46-37 | 55% | -115 | +0.69u | +0.8% | -0.2% |
| nhl_elo · Puck line | 23 | 9-14 | 39% | -124 | -6.75u | -29.3% | -0.5% |
| nhl_totals | 61 | 25-36 | 41% | +105 | -9.78u | -16.0% | -0.1% |
Thin edges (0–2% EV) are listed on the board without a ● and aren't in the record above. Tracked anyway: 40-34, -5.23u, avg CLV +0.0% over 74 plays (small sample).
Plays above 15% EV are hidden from the picks as likely bad lines, and aren't in the record above. Tracked anyway: 2-8, -5.87u, avg CLV +0.3% over 10 plays (small sample).