Model performance
227 graded· 0 awaiting result· 17 upcoming· CLV on 151/227· last graded Nov 1, 10:48 PM CT· 2 excluded (picked after start)
Winners
78-40
66%
Totals
46-60
43%
Spread
56-60
48%
Avg CLV
0.0%
beat the close
Shop gain
+1.14%
best vs avg book (ML)
Work in progress: NFL is in the red. Small samples swing hard, but closing-line value near zero says that model isn’t beating the market yet, so we're retuning it. Every pick stays in the record as graded.
- NFL (Oct 28): Totals picks paused: our scoring projection showed no edge over the posted totals. Moneyline and spread picks continue — they’ve held up.
By model
| Model | Moneyline | ML CLV | Totals | Tot CLV | Spread | Spread CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nfl_elo | 78-40 · 66.1% | 0.0% | — | — | 56-60 · 48.3% | -0.2% |
| nfl_totals | — | — | 46-60 · 43.4% | -0.1% | — | — |
+EV picks — flagged plays only
the card's green ● plays: 2–15% EV| Model | +EV picks | Record | Win% | Avg odds | P/L (u) | ROI | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nfl_elo · Moneyline | 51 | 39-12 | 76% | -178 | +9.65u | +18.9% | -0.1% |
| nfl_elo · Spread | 64 | 31-33 | 48% | -101 | -2.11u | -3.3% | -0.3% |
| nfl_totals | 74 | 29-45 | 39% | -100 | -16.25u | -22.0% | -0.1% |
Thin edges (0–2% EV) are listed on the board without a ● and aren't in the record above. Tracked anyway: 16-13, -0.75u, avg CLV -0.3% over 29 plays (small sample).
Plays above 15% EV are hidden from the picks as likely bad lines, and aren't in the record above. Tracked anyway: 24-30, -5.09u, avg CLV +0.3% over 54 plays (small sample).
Backtest — nfl_elo
walk-forward vs historical linesseason 2026, weeks 1–2 — outcomes are noisy at this sample; CLV is the signal that matters.
| Market | Picks | Record | Win% | ROI | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 32 | 20-12 | 63% | -7.8% | 0.1% |
| Spread | 31 | 11-20 | 35% | -31.0% | 0.7% |