Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Bears
Market51.6%
Model53.7%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadEagles +1.5 -111NoVig-3.6% EV
MoneylineBears -113Kalshi
TotalUnder 48.5 -115NoVig-1.1% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts
Eagles · QBQB Elo
+63
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
42.5
Games
54
Caleb Williams
Bears · QBQB Elo
-9
vs avg
Average
Raw value
17.3
Games
17
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.