Jared Goff vs Josh Allen
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Bills
Market67.6%
Model69.7%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadBills -5.5 +100Kalshi+2.4% EV
MoneylineBills -215ProphetX
TotalUnder 54.5 +108Kalshi+24.6% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Jared Goff
Lions · QBQB Elo
+60
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
41.2
Games
55
Josh Allen
Bills · QBQB Elo
+90
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
51.9
Games
56
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.
Injuries
Lions injuriesD.J. Reed · CB · Questionable
Foot
Christian Mahogany · G · Out
Hip
Blake Miller · T · Out
Knee
Bills injuriesTy Johnson · RB · Questionable
Hamstring
Cole Bishop · S · Questionable
Knee / Groin
T.J. Sanders · DE · Questionable
Knee / Illness