Bo Nix vs Patrick Mahomes
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Chiefs
Market54.9%
Model42.1%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadBroncos +2.5 -104Kalshi+22.9% EV
MoneylineBroncos +122Kalshi
TotalUnder 43.5 -108Kalshi-1.5% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Bo Nix
Broncos · QBQB Elo
+46
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
36.4
Games
18
Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs · QBQB Elo
+55
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
39.5
Games
59
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.