Win probability — Saints
Market55.1%
Model53.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineSaints —
Starting quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa
Falcons · QBQB Elo
+47
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
36.8
Games
42
Zach Wilson
Saints · QBQB Elo
-42
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
5.6
Games
21
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.