Drake Maye vs Sam Darnold
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.
Win probability — Seahawks
Market61.1%
Model63.4%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
SpreadPatriots +3.5 -115NoVig-6.4% EV
MoneylineSeahawks -158ProphetX
TotalOver 44.5 +104Kalshi+3.5% EV
Starting quarterbacks
Drake Maye
Patriots · QBQB Elo
0
vs avg
Average
Raw value
20.4
Games
12
Sam Darnold
Seahawks · QBQB Elo
+16
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
25.9
Games
26
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.