Win probability — Browns
Market44.9%
Model38.0%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineSteelers —
Starting quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers
Steelers · QBQB Elo
+15
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
25.6
Games
34
Deshaun Watson
Browns · QBQB Elo
-32
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
9.2
Games
19
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.