Falcons
Elo 1462 · #20 · 0-1
@
Thu, Sep 24, 7:15 PM CT
Packers
Elo 1519 · #16 · 0-1
Falcons Spread
+5.5+102NoVig
Packers Spread
-5.5-115NoVig
Over / Under
O 45.5-111NoVig
U 45.5-102NoVig
Falcons ML
+257Kalshi
Packers ML
-270Kalshi
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Win probability — Packers

Market71.8%
Model68.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).

Model picks

SpreadFalcons +5.5 +102NoVig+2.9% EV
MoneylinePackers -270Kalshi
TotalUnder 45.5 -102NoVig+0.9% EV

Starting quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa
Falcons · QB
QB Elo
+47
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
36.8
Games
42
Jordan Love
Packers · QB
QB Elo
+28
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
30.0
Games
37
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.