Win probability — 49ers
Market68.1%
Model75.2%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
Moneyline49ers —
Starting quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels
Commanders · QBQB Elo
+52
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
38.5
Games
19
Brock Purdy
49ers · QBQB Elo
+47
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
36.8
Games
43
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.