+EV betting card
Every model pick ranked by expected value at the best available price. EV is per the model — not a guarantee. Not betting advice.
7 +EV plays — 2026-09-17 · 4 worth playing
EV = model edge + line-shop gain| Game | Market | Pick | Best price | Proj% | Mkt% | Model | Shop | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
● Phillies@ Mets · 6:16 PM CT | Total | under 8.5 | -108NoVig | 54% | 52% | +2.8% | +0.6% | +3.4% |
● Red Sox@ Rangers · 7:06 PM CT | Total | over 7.5 | -107ProphetX | 53% | 52% | +3.5% | -0.3% | +3.3% |
● Twins@ Angels · 8:39 PM CT | Total | over 7.5 | +104Kalshi | 50% | 49% | +3.2% | -0.3% | +2.9% |
● Tigers@ White Sox · 6:41 PM CT | ML | Tigers | +108Kalshi | 49% | 49% | +1.6% | +1.1% | +2.7% |
| Twins@Angels · 8:39 PM CT | ML | Angels | +100Kalshi | 51% | 50% | +2.3% | -0.9% | +1.4% |
 Dodgers@ Reds · 11:41 AM CT | ML | Dodgers | -150ProphetX | 61% | 60% | +1.6% | -0.3% | +1.3% |
 Athletics@ Rays · 12:10 PM CT | ML | Rays | -239NoVig | 71% | 71% | +0.9% | +0.1% | +1.1% |
EV splits into Model (edge betting at fair — the model genuinely liking the side) and Shop (extra from the best price beating fair). A green ● marks a quality play: model and price agree and the edge clears 2%. ⚠ flags an unusually large EV (>15%) that is almost always a stale line — verify it before trusting it. Proj% is regressed toward the sharp market (30% model on ML, 20% on totals); CLV is still the real long-run judge.