Phillies
Elo 1543 · #7 · 83-68
@
Thu, Sep 17, 6:16 PM CT
Mets
Elo 1498 · #17 · 69-83
Aaron Nola vs Nolan McLean
Phillies RL
+1.5-178Kalshi
Mets RL
-1.5+170Kalshi
Over / Under
O 8.5+108Kalshi
U 8.5-108NoVig
Phillies ML
+117Kalshi
Mets ML
-121ProphetX
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
79°F
Cloudy
Wind 8 mph · out to CF (+8)
7 PM
8
8 PM
7
9 PM
4
10 PM
4
Phillies record
Overall85-68 · .556
Home41-34
Away44-34
Last 105-5
StreakW2
Mets record
Overall69-84 · .451
Home34-44
Away35-40
Last 104-6
StreakL5

Win probability — Mets

Market54.5%
Model54.3%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineMets -121ProphetX-0.6% EV
Totalunder 8.5 -108NoVig · proj 7.41+3.4% EV
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
Phillies
rating
100
ERA
4.69
FIP
4.92
K-BB%
15.9%
IP
161
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home755.301.469.62.8.288
Away874.151.298.83.3.245
Night1164.501.409.23.3.266
vs LHB96—1.478.94.3.255
vs RHB64—1.269.91.3.280
rating
113
ERA
3.24
FIP
3.51
K-BB%
17.0%
IP
167
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home863.571.3010.24.1.230
Away812.891.059.73.0.197
Night983.021.189.43.3.223
vs LHB97—1.3610.23.8.244
vs RHB69—0.959.73.3.168

Injuries

Phillies injuries
Adolis García · RF · Injured 60-Day
Brad Keller · P · Injured 60-Day
Caleb Kilian · P · Injured 15-Day
Felix Reyes · LF · Injured 60-Day
Jesús Luzardo · P · Injured 15-Day
Johan Rojas · CF · Injured 60-Day
Mets injuries
Cionel Pérez · P · Injured 15-Day
Daniel Duarte · P · Injured 15-Day
Devin Williams · P · Injured 15-Day
Jorge Polanco · DH · Injured 60-Day
Reed Garrett · P · Injured 60-Day
Robert Stock · P · Injured 15-Day
Tylor Megill · P · Injured 60-Day