Royals
Elo 1480 · #23 · 67-85
@
Thu, Sep 17, 6:16 PM CT
Astros
Elo 1497 · #18 · 76-76
Seth Lugo vs TBD
Royals RL
+1.5-150Kalshi
Astros RL
-1.5+144Kalshi
Over / Under
O 8.5-120NoVig
U 8.5+117Kalshi
Royals ML
+138ProphetX
Astros ML
-138NoVig
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
83°F
Cloudy
Wind 4 mph · crosswind
7 PM
4
8 PM
4
9 PM
4
10 PM
2
Royals record
Overall67-86 · .438
Home39-36
Away28-50
Last 104-6
StreakL1
Astros record
Overall77-76 · .503
Home39-39
Away38-37
Last 104-6
StreakW1

Win probability — Astros

Market58.0%
Model56.2%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineAstros -138NoVig-0.9% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Royals
rating
95
ERA
4.99
FIP
4.14
K-BB%
10.3%
IP
164
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home864.071.366.33.1.269
Away786.031.567.72.7.312
Night1104.081.387.12.7.284
vs LHB100—1.607.43.4.304
vs RHB62—1.266.42.2.266
TBD
Astros
No rating yet (under 20 IP or not announced).

Injuries

Royals injuries
Alec Marsh · P · Injured 60-Day
Beck Way · P · Injured 15-Day
Carlos Estévez · P · Injured 60-Day
Cole Ragans · P · Injured 60-Day
Connor Seabold · P · Injured 60-Day
James McArthur · P · Injured 60-Day
Jonathan India · 2B · Injured 60-Day
Luinder Avila · P · Injured 60-Day
Nick Mears · P · Injured 60-Day
Stephen Kolek · P · Injured 60-Day
Tony Gonsolin · P · Injured 15-Day
Astros injuries
Brandon Walter · P · Injured 60-Day
Brice Matthews · CF · Injured 60-Day
Carlos Correa · SS · Injured 60-Day
Mike Burrows · P · Injured 60-Day
Steven Okert · P · Injured 15-Day