Win probability — Bears
Market77.2%
Model77.0%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineBears —
Starting quarterbacks
Geno Smith
Jets · QBQB Elo
+31
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
31.1
Games
50
Caleb Williams
Bears · QBQB Elo
-9
vs avg
Average
Raw value
17.3
Games
17
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.