Win probability — Commanders
Market51.7%
Model58.4%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineCommanders —
Starting quarterbacks
Daniel Jones
Colts · QBQB Elo
-2
vs avg
Average
Raw value
19.7
Games
34
Jayden Daniels
Commanders · QBQB Elo
+52
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
38.5
Games
19
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.