Win probability — Bills
Market59.3%
Model64.8%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineBills —
Starting quarterbacks
Joshua Dobbs
Patriots · QBQB Elo
+2
vs avg
Average
Raw value
20.9
Games
16
Josh Allen
Bills · QBQB Elo
+90
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
51.9
Games
56
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.
Injuries
Patriots injuriesNo reported injuries.
Bills injuriesTy Johnson · RB · Questionable
Hamstring
Cole Bishop · S · Questionable
Knee / Groin
T.J. Sanders · DE · Questionable
Knee / Illness