Blue Jays
Elo 1514 · #11 · 76-77
@
Thu, Sep 3, 12:10 PM CT
Final 6–3
Guardians
Elo 1506 · #13 · 78-75
José Soriano vs Tanner Bibee
Blue Jays RL
-0.5+100NoVig
Guardians RL
+0.5-108NoVig
Over / Under
O 7.5-113Kalshi
U 7.5+113NoVig
Blue Jays ML
+103ProphetX
Guardians ML
-104Kalshi
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
72°F
Cloudy
Wind 3 mph · crosswind
7 PM
3
8 PM
3
9 PM
3
10 PM
3
Blue Jays record
Overall76-77 · .497
Home40-38
Away36-39
Last 104-6
StreakW1
Guardians record
Overall78-75 · .510
Home38-40
Away40-35
Last 106-4
StreakW2

Win probability — Guardians

Market50.5%
Model53.8%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineGuardians -104Kalshi+1.0% EV
Totalover 7.5 -113Kalshi · proj 8.27+1.1% EV
Run lineGuardians +1.5 -108NoVig+23.2% EV

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
Blue Jays
rating
102
ERA
3.56
FIP
3.83
K-BB%
12.3%
IP
169
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home743.791.199.53.8.213
Away963.391.337.63.9.242
Night1083.581.248.83.9.222
vs LHB96—1.387.44.2.242
vs RHB72—1.159.93.4.212
Guardians
rating
95
ERA
4.16
FIP
4.59
K-BB%
11.8%
IP
177
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home964.111.177.22.7.231
Away814.221.207.02.8.239
Night1324.091.147.62.4.233
vs LHB102—1.197.72.8.233
vs RHB74—1.196.32.7.237

Injuries

Blue Jays injuries
Addison Barger · RF · Injured 60-Day
Anthony Santander · RF · Injured 60-Day
Bowden Francis · P · Injured 60-Day
Cody Ponce · P · Injured 60-Day
Jake Bloss · P · Injured 60-Day
Jameson Taillon · P · Injured 15-Day
Jonatan Clase · LF · Injured 60-Day
José Berríos · P · Injured 60-Day
Luis Urías · 2B · Injured 10-Day
Patrick Corbin · P · Injured 60-Day
Rudy Martin Jr. · RF · Injured 10-Day
Shane Bieber · P · Injured 15-Day
Trey Yesavage · P · Injured 15-Day
Yimi García · P · Injured 60-Day
Guardians injuries
Colin Holderman · P · Injured 15-Day
Rhys Hoskins · 1B · Injured 10-Day
Shawn Armstrong · P · Injured 60-Day