Win probability — Seahawks
Market60.9%
Model72.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineSeahawks —
Starting quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs · QBQB Elo
+55
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
39.5
Games
59
Sam Darnold
Seahawks · QBQB Elo
+16
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
25.9
Games
26
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.