Win probability — Jets
Market56.3%
Model52.3%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineJets —
Starting quarterbacks
Malik Willis
Dolphins · QBQB Elo
-40
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
6.4
Games
8
Geno Smith
Jets · QBQB Elo
+31
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
31.1
Games
50
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.