Padres
Elo 1539 · #8 · 83-69
@
Wed, Sep 2, 11:41 AM CT
Final 3–7
Reds
Elo 1464 · #26 · 71-81
Casey Mize vs Brandon Williamson
Padres RL
-1.5+113Kalshi
Reds RL
+1.5-116ProphetX
Over / Under
O 9.5+106NoVig
U 9.5-108Kalshi
Padres ML
-140ProphetX
Reds ML
+138Kalshi
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
85°F
Clear
Wind 3 mph · out to CF (+3)
7 PM
3
8 PM
4
9 PM
2
10 PM
3
Padres record
Overall84-69 · .549
Home46-29
Away38-40
Last 109-1
StreakW2
Reds record
Overall71-82 · .464
Home37-41
Away34-41
Last 102-8
StreakL1

Win probability — Reds

Market41.7%
Model43.3%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylinePadres -140ProphetX-0.9% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
107
ERA
3.69
FIP
3.70
K-BB%
14.9%
IP
124
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home603.150.978.01.8.211
Away644.201.317.52.7.259
Night754.421.278.62.9.250
vs LHB70—1.097.82.2.223
vs RHB53—1.237.82.4.255
rating
75
ERA
5.61
FIP
5.89
K-BB%
1.6%
IP
42
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home178.472.007.97.4.299
Away253.651.265.54.7.207
Night245.251.466.46.0.216
vs LHB12—1.179.03.8.205
vs RHB30—1.725.56.7.264

Injuries

Padres injuries
Bryan Hoeing · P · Injured 60-Day
Gavin Sheets · 1B · Injured 10-Day
Jason Adam · P · Injured 60-Day
Jeremiah Estrada · P · Injured 15-Day
Joe Musgrove · P · Injured 60-Day
Lucas Giolito · P · Injured 60-Day
Luis Rengifo · LF · Injured 60-Day
Miguel Andujar · DH · Injured 10-Day
Ramón Laureano · LF · Injured 60-Day
Reds injuries
Blake Dunn · CF · Injured 60-Day
Hunter Greene · P · Injured 60-Day
Michael Toglia · 1B · Injured 60-Day
Spencer Steer · 1B · Injured 10-Day