Win probability — Jaguars
Market46.8%
Model60.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineJaguars —
Starting quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts
Eagles · QBQB Elo
+63
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
42.5
Games
54
Trevor Lawrence
Jaguars · QBQB Elo
+23
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
28.4
Games
45
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.