Win probability — Chargers
Market56.3%
Model46.0%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineBroncos —
Starting quarterbacks
Bo Nix
Broncos · QBQB Elo
+46
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
36.4
Games
18
Justin Herbert
Chargers · QBQB Elo
+30
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
30.8
Games
49
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.