Win probability — Falcons
Market35.5%
Model40.9%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineRavens —
Starting quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson
Ravens · QBQB Elo
+99
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
55.0
Games
48
Tua Tagovailoa
Falcons · QBQB Elo
+47
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
36.8
Games
42
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.