Win probability — Saints
Market46.8%
Model36.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineVikings —
Starting quarterbacks
Kyler Murray
Vikings · QBQB Elo
+55
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
39.5
Games
35
Zach Wilson
Saints · QBQB Elo
-42
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
5.6
Games
21
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.