Win probability — Commanders
Market54.3%
Model57.7%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineCommanders —
Starting quarterbacks
Jameis Winston
Giants · QBQB Elo
-26
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
11.3
Games
14
Jayden Daniels
Commanders · QBQB Elo
+52
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
38.5
Games
19
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.