Win probability — Dolphins
Market29.5%
Model46.4%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineBengals —
Starting quarterbacks
Joe Burrow
Bengals · QBQB Elo
+72
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
45.5
Games
46
Malik Willis
Dolphins · QBQB Elo
-40
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
6.4
Games
8
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.