Pirates
Elo 1504 · #15 · 75-77
@
Sun, Sep 13, 1:21 PM CT
Final 4–3
Cubs
Elo 1559 · #4 · 85-68
Bubba Chandler vs Matthew Boyd
Pirates RL
+1.5-163Kalshi
Cubs RL
-1.5+156Kalshi
Over / Under
O 6.5-127Kalshi
U 6.5+122Kalshi
Pirates ML
+144NoVig
Cubs ML
-144Kalshi
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
68°F
Cloudy
Wind 10 mph · in from CF (−10)
7 PM
10
8 PM
6
9 PM
5
10 PM
7
Pirates record
Overall76-77 · .497
Home39-36
Away37-41
Last 106-4
StreakW1
Cubs record
Overall85-68 · .556
Home45-33
Away40-35
Last 104-6
StreakW1

Win probability — Cubs

Market58.9%
Model57.0%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineCubs -144Kalshi-1.1% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
93
ERA
4.28
FIP
4.18
K-BB%
9.0%
IP
147
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home594.271.418.14.4.241
Away884.281.318.14.7.215
Night984.221.348.64.5.225
vs LHB80—1.438.14.9.234
vs RHB66—1.278.14.2.216
rating
97
ERA
4.16
FIP
4.27
K-BB%
11.4%
IP
115
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home545.531.277.42.0.271
Away612.951.216.63.4.228
Night563.511.386.42.7.274
vs LHB32—1.237.44.3.212
vs RHB81—1.277.02.2.261

Injuries

Pirates injuries
Braxton Ashcraft · P · Injured 15-Day
Endy Rodríguez · C · Injured 60-Day
Esmerlyn Valdez · RF · Injured 10-Day
Isaac Mattson · P · Injured 15-Day
Kirby Yates · P · Injured 15-Day
Mitch Keller · P · Injured 60-Day
Cubs injuries
Ben Brown · P · Injured 60-Day
Cade Horton · P · Injured 60-Day
Dansby Swanson · SS · Injured 10-Day
Gavin Hollowell · P · Injured 15-Day
Hunter Harvey · P · Injured 60-Day
Justin Steele · P · Injured 60-Day
Phil Maton · P · Injured 60-Day
Porter Hodge · P · Injured 60-Day
Riley Martin · P · Injured 60-Day
Shelby Miller · P · Injured 60-Day
Trent Thornton · P · Injured 15-Day
Tyler Austin · 1B · Injured 60-Day