Astros
Elo 1497 · #18 · 76-76
@
Sun, Sep 13, 12:41 PM CT
Final 4–14
Rays
Elo 1547 · #6 · 92-59
Hayden Wesneski vs Freddy Peralta
Astros RL
+1.5-178Kalshi
Rays RL
-1.5+170Kalshi
Over / Under
O 7.5-115NoVig
U 7.5+113Kalshi
Astros ML
+123ProphetX
Rays ML
-125NoVig
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
Roof closed
Neutral conditions
Astros record
Overall77-76 · .503
Home39-39
Away38-37
Last 104-6
StreakW1
Rays record
Overall93-59 · .612
Home53-25
Away40-34
Last 108-2
StreakW6

Win probability — Rays

Market55.5%
Model55.8%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineRays -125NoVig+0.1% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
101
ERA
3.70
FIP
3.70
K-BB%
11.1%
IP
49
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home222.860.957.83.3.169
Away274.391.286.42.7.257
Night463.351.037.12.8.204
vs LHB28—1.097.02.5.221
vs RHB20—1.187.13.5.216
rating
99
ERA
4.67
FIP
4.35
K-BB%
12.8%
IP
158
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home843.661.278.84.0.219
Away745.811.417.82.5.281
Night745.931.478.22.2.296
vs LHB101—1.338.33.0.254
vs RHB57—1.368.43.8.241

Injuries

Astros injuries
Brandon Walter · P · Injured 60-Day
Brice Matthews · CF · Injured 60-Day
Carlos Correa · SS · Injured 60-Day
Mike Burrows · P · Injured 60-Day
Steven Okert · P · Injured 15-Day
Rays injuries
Ben Williamson · 2B · Injured 10-Day
Edwin Uceta · P · Injured 60-Day
Garrett Cleavinger · P · Injured 15-Day
Gavin Lux · LF · Injured 60-Day
Jonathan Heasley · P · Injured 60-Day
Manuel Rodríguez · P · Injured 15-Day
Ryan Pepiot · P · Injured 60-Day
Shane McClanahan · P · Injured 15-Day
Tyler Wells · P · Injured 15-Day