Royals
Elo 1480 · #23 · 67-85
@
Sun, Sep 13, 2:06 PM CT
Final 1–4
Red Sox
Elo 1550 · #5 · 82-70
Noah Cameron vs Payton Tolle
Royals RL
+1.5-133Kalshi
Red Sox RL
-1.5+130NoVig
Over / Under
O 7.5+107ProphetX
U 7.5-108Kalshi
Royals ML
+164ProphetX
Red Sox ML
-166ProphetX
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
74°F
Cloudy
Wind 8 mph · out to CF (+8)
7 PM
8
8 PM
7
9 PM
4
10 PM
6
Royals record
Overall67-86 · .438
Home39-36
Away28-50
Last 104-6
StreakL1
Red Sox record
Overall83-70 · .542
Home38-37
Away45-33
Last 105-5
StreakW1

Win probability — Red Sox

Market62.3%
Model63.9%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineRed Sox -166ProphetX+0.6% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
106
ERA
3.84
FIP
3.68
K-BB%
14.0%
IP
166
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home794.581.448.13.5.266
Away883.180.978.02.2.201
Night954.171.248.23.0.241
vs LHB38—1.328.32.1.273
vs RHB127—1.178.13.1.220
rating
126
ERA
3.02
FIP
3.04
K-BB%
22.3%
IP
143
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home713.551.1712.22.5.232
Away722.500.978.82.3.202
Night962.921.0110.52.4.206
vs LHB39—1.158.11.9.243
vs RHB103—1.0511.52.6.207

Injuries

Royals injuries
Alec Marsh · P · Injured 60-Day
Beck Way · P · Injured 15-Day
Carlos Estévez · P · Injured 60-Day
Cole Ragans · P · Injured 60-Day
Connor Seabold · P · Injured 60-Day
James McArthur · P · Injured 60-Day
Jonathan India · 2B · Injured 60-Day
Luinder Avila · P · Injured 60-Day
Nick Mears · P · Injured 60-Day
Stephen Kolek · P · Injured 60-Day
Tony Gonsolin · P · Injured 15-Day
Red Sox injuries
Anthony Seigler · 2B · Injured 10-Day
Ceddanne Rafaela · CF · Injured 10-Day
Curtis Mead · 3B · Injured 10-Day
Eduardo Rivera · P · Injured 60-Day
Eli White · CF · Injured 10-Day
Garrett Crochet · P · Injured 60-Day
Johan Oviedo · P · Injured 60-Day
Justin Slaten · P · Injured 15-Day
Kutter Crawford · P · Injured 60-Day
Masataka Yoshida · DH · Injured 10-Day
Tanner Houck · P · Injured 60-Day
Triston Casas · 1B · Injured 60-Day
Tyron Guerrero · P · Injured 15-Day
Zack Kelly · P · Injured 60-Day