Braves
Elo 1537 · #9 · 89-65
@
Mon, Sep 7, 12:06 PM CT
Final 0–1
Phillies
Elo 1543 · #7 · 83-68
Grant Holmes vs Jesús Luzardo
Braves RL
+1.5-127NoVig
Phillies RL
-1.5+127Kalshi
Over / Under
O 7.5-111NoVig
U 7.5+108NoVig
Braves ML
+174NoVig
Phillies ML
-174ProphetX
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
79°F
Clear
Wind 3 mph · out to CF (+3)
7 PM
3
8 PM
5
9 PM
5
10 PM
3
Braves record
Overall89-64 · .582
Home51-27
Away38-37
Last 104-6
StreakL1
Phillies record
Overall85-68 · .556
Home41-34
Away44-34
Last 105-5
StreakW2

Win probability — Phillies

Market63.0%
Model56.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylinePhillies -174ProphetX-3.8% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
88
ERA
3.49
FIP
4.74
K-BB%
8.5%
IP
142
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home714.541.516.93.9.273
Away702.431.087.03.6.192
Night894.351.407.34.0.250
vs LHB87—1.266.64.1.220
vs RHB54—1.377.73.2.257
rating
131
ERA
2.87
FIP
2.70
K-BB%
23.3%
IP
179
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home874.051.0510.92.3.216
Away921.761.1111.32.9.214
Night1212.901.1610.92.7.231
vs LHB47—0.7012.01.7.147
vs RHB130—1.2311.03.0.237

Injuries

Braves injuries
Bryce Elder · P · Injured 15-Day
Joe Jiménez · P · Injured 60-Day
Joey Wentz · P · Injured 60-Day
Lane Thomas · LF · Injured 10-Day
Reynaldo López · P · Injured 15-Day
Robert Suarez · P · Injured 60-Day
Spencer Schwellenbach · P · Injured 60-Day
Spencer Strider · P · Injured 60-Day
Phillies injuries
Adolis García · RF · Injured 60-Day
Brad Keller · P · Injured 60-Day
Caleb Kilian · P · Injured 15-Day
Felix Reyes · LF · Injured 60-Day
Jesús Luzardo · P · Injured 15-Day
Johan Rojas · CF · Injured 60-Day