Nationals
Elo 1472 · #25 · 71-82
@
Tue, Sep 8, 8:41 PM CT
Final 4–5
Padres
Elo 1539 · #8 · 83-69
Riley Cornelio vs Casey Mize
Nationals RL
+1.5-133NoVig
Padres RL
-1.5+129ProphetX
Over / Under
O 7.5-113Kalshi
U 7.5+111NoVig
Nationals ML
+170NoVig
Padres ML
-170Kalshi
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
74°F
Partly cloudy
Wind 9 mph · crosswind
7 PM
9
8 PM
8
9 PM
6
10 PM
5
Nationals record
Overall71-82 · .464
Home37-41
Away34-41
Last 104-6
StreakL1
Padres record
Overall84-69 · .549
Home46-29
Away38-40
Last 109-1
StreakW2

Win probability — Padres

Market62.8%
Model58.8%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylinePadres -170Kalshi-2.1% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Riley Cornelio
Nationals
No rating yet (under 20 IP or not announced).
rating
107
ERA
3.69
FIP
3.70
K-BB%
14.9%
IP
124
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home603.150.978.01.8.211
Away644.201.317.52.7.259
Night754.421.278.62.9.250
vs LHB70—1.097.82.2.223
vs RHB53—1.237.82.4.255

Injuries

Nationals injuries
Connelly Early · P · Injured 60-Day
DJ Herz · P · Injured 60-Day
Drew Millas · C · Injured 60-Day
Josiah Gray · P · Injured 60-Day
Ken Waldichuk · P · Injured 60-Day
Matt Waldron · P · Injured 60-Day
Mitchell Parker · P · Injured 60-Day
Orlando Ribalta · P · Injured 15-Day
PJ Poulin · P · Injured 60-Day
Padres injuries
Bryan Hoeing · P · Injured 60-Day
Gavin Sheets · 1B · Injured 10-Day
Jason Adam · P · Injured 60-Day
Jeremiah Estrada · P · Injured 15-Day
Joe Musgrove · P · Injured 60-Day
Lucas Giolito · P · Injured 60-Day
Luis Rengifo · LF · Injured 60-Day
Miguel Andujar · DH · Injured 10-Day
Ramón Laureano · LF · Injured 60-Day