Win probability — Patriots
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylinePatriots —
Starting quarterbacks
Geno Smith
Jets · QBQB Elo
+31
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
31.1
Games
50
Joshua Dobbs
Patriots · QBQB Elo
+2
vs avg
Average
Raw value
20.9
Games
16
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.