Win probability — Chiefs
Market56.3%
Model60.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineChiefs —
Starting quarterbacks
Justin Herbert
Chargers · QBQB Elo
+30
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
30.8
Games
49
Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs · QBQB Elo
+55
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
39.5
Games
59
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.