Win probability — Colts
Market63.7%
Model71.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineColts —
Starting quarterbacks
Mitchell Trubisky
Titans · QBQB Elo
-24
vs avg
Below avg
Raw value
12.0
Games
13
Daniel Jones
Colts · QBQB Elo
-2
vs avg
Average
Raw value
19.7
Games
34
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.