Win probability — Falcons
Market41.7%
Model43.1%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineBears —
Starting quarterbacks
Caleb Williams
Bears · QBQB Elo
-9
vs avg
Average
Raw value
17.3
Games
17
Tua Tagovailoa
Falcons · QBQB Elo
+47
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
36.8
Games
42
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.