Win probability — Jaguars
Market50.4%
Model58.3%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineJaguars —
Starting quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud
Texans · QBQB Elo
0
vs avg
Average
Raw value
20.3
Games
36
Trevor Lawrence
Jaguars · QBQB Elo
+23
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
28.4
Games
45
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.