Win probability — Buccaneers
Market53.2%
Model45.4%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = Elo (home field + power ratings, blended toward the market).
Model picks
Spreadno lean
MoneylineSteelers —
Starting quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers
Steelers · QBQB Elo
+15
vs avg
Above avg
Raw value
25.6
Games
34
Baker Mayfield
Buccaneers · QBQB Elo
+62
vs avg
Elite
Raw value
42.1
Games
49
QB value is nfelo-style — Elo points above (+) or below (−) a league-average starter. The model applies the gap vs a team's usual starter when a different QB is projected.