Cubs
Elo 1559 · #4 · 85-68
@
Sun, Sep 6, 12:41 PM CT
Final 3–10
Marlins
Elo 1501 · #16 · 76-77
Clay Holmes vs Tyler Phillips
Cubs RL
-1.5+122Kalshi
Marlins RL
+1.5-122ProphetX
Over / Under
O 8.5+108Kalshi
U 8.5-111NoVig
Cubs ML
-138NoVig
Marlins ML
+136ProphetX
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
79°F
Cloudy
Wind 3 mph · in from CF (−3)
7 PM
3
8 PM
6
9 PM
2
10 PM
2
Cubs record
Overall85-68 · .556
Home45-33
Away40-35
Last 104-6
StreakW1
Marlins record
Overall76-77 · .497
Home45-33
Away31-44
Last 105-5
StreakW2

Win probability — Marlins

Market42.5%
Model45.5%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineCubs -138NoVig-2.4% EV
Totalno lean
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
99
ERA
2.85
FIP
3.62
K-BB%
9.8%
IP
92
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home461.941.147.43.1.215
Away453.771.156.53.6.206
Night572.351.107.43.0.212
vs LHB58—1.136.73.0.216
vs RHB34—1.187.44.0.202
rating
89
ERA
3.55
FIP
4.73
K-BB%
8.9%
IP
119
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home722.491.268.54.0.221
Away475.211.445.43.7.262
Night623.631.407.84.5.241
vs LHB63—1.507.54.7.251
vs RHB55—1.157.03.0.222

Injuries

Cubs injuries
Ben Brown · P · Injured 60-Day
Cade Horton · P · Injured 60-Day
Dansby Swanson · SS · Injured 10-Day
Gavin Hollowell · P · Injured 15-Day
Hunter Harvey · P · Injured 60-Day
Justin Steele · P · Injured 60-Day
Phil Maton · P · Injured 60-Day
Porter Hodge · P · Injured 60-Day
Riley Martin · P · Injured 60-Day
Shelby Miller · P · Injured 60-Day
Trent Thornton · P · Injured 15-Day
Tyler Austin · 1B · Injured 60-Day
Marlins injuries
Adam Mazur · P · Injured 60-Day
Andrew Nardi · P · Injured 60-Day
Anthony Bender · P · Injured 15-Day
Max Meyer · P · Injured 15-Day
Owen Caissie · RF · Injured 10-Day
Pete Fairbanks · P · Injured 15-Day
Robby Snelling · P · Injured 60-Day
Ronny Henriquez · P · Injured 60-Day
William Kempner · P · Injured 60-Day