Red Sox
Elo 1550 · #5 · 82-70
@
Sun, Sep 6, 12:35 PM CT
Final 3–1
Orioles
Elo 1505 · #14 · 75-77
Payton Tolle vs Kyle Bradish
Red Sox RL
-1.5+133Kalshi
Orioles RL
+1.5-138Kalshi
Over / Under
O 7.5+113Kalshi
U 7.5-117Kalshi
Red Sox ML
-122Kalshi
Orioles ML
+122ProphetX
Best available across Kalshi, NoVig, and ProphetX at pull time.

Matchup factors

Weather
79°F
Partly cloudy
Wind 3 mph · out to CF (+3)
7 PM
3
8 PM
4
9 PM
4
10 PM
3
Red Sox record
Overall83-70 · .542
Home38-37
Away45-33
Last 105-5
StreakW1
Orioles record
Overall75-78 · .490
Home36-39
Away39-39
Last 106-4
StreakW3

Win probability — Orioles

Market45.3%
Model44.6%
Market = de-vigged consensus of the exchanges. Model = model_v2 (regressed toward the market on the card).

Model picks

MoneylineRed Sox -122Kalshi-0.1% EV
Totalover 7.5 +113Kalshi · proj 8.28+4.6% EV
Run lineno lean

Starting pitchers

Compare starters →
rating
126
ERA
3.02
FIP
3.04
K-BB%
22.3%
IP
143
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home713.551.1712.22.5.232
Away722.500.978.82.3.202
Night962.921.0110.52.4.206
vs LHB39—1.158.11.9.243
vs RHB103—1.0511.52.6.207
rating
94
ERA
4.12
FIP
4.40
K-BB%
10.8%
IP
155
SplitIPERAWHIPK/9BB/9OBA
Home693.261.237.64.6.199
Away864.811.648.83.7.312
Night823.751.419.03.0.279
vs LHB93—1.518.34.3.265
vs RHB60—1.438.43.9.262

Injuries

Red Sox injuries
Anthony Seigler · 2B · Injured 10-Day
Ceddanne Rafaela · CF · Injured 10-Day
Curtis Mead · 3B · Injured 10-Day
Eduardo Rivera · P · Injured 60-Day
Eli White · CF · Injured 10-Day
Garrett Crochet · P · Injured 60-Day
Johan Oviedo · P · Injured 60-Day
Justin Slaten · P · Injured 15-Day
Kutter Crawford · P · Injured 60-Day
Masataka Yoshida · DH · Injured 10-Day
Tanner Houck · P · Injured 60-Day
Triston Casas · 1B · Injured 60-Day
Tyron Guerrero · P · Injured 15-Day
Zack Kelly · P · Injured 60-Day
Orioles injuries
Blaze Alexander · 3B · Injured 10-Day
Christian Franklin · CF · Injured 10-Day
Colin Selby · P · Injured 60-Day
Félix Bautista · P · Injured 60-Day
Jackson Holliday · 2B · Injured 10-Day
Jordan Westburg · 3B · Injured 60-Day
Keegan Akin · P · Injured 60-Day
Kyle Bradish · P · Injured 15-Day
Luis Robert Jr. · CF · Injured 10-Day
Ryan Helsley · P · Injured 60-Day
Ryan Mountcastle · 1B · Injured 60-Day
Tyler O'Neill · RF · Injured 10-Day
Zach Eflin · P · Injured 60-Day